Survivorship bias

If you only listen to the winners, you will copy habits that had nothing to do with winning. The losers had them too.

Definition

The logical error of drawing conclusions from a sample that has passed some selection process while ignoring the cases that did not, leading to overestimation of success rates and misidentification of causes.

Step 1

Predict first

In one or two sentences, what do you think this concept means? Wrong is fine; the small struggle is what makes the answer stick.