Mental Models & Famous Laws

A latticework for clearer thinking

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Concept 13 of 21

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Bayes' theorem

Start with how likely something is. Get new info. Adjust your number, do not throw the old one away.

Definition

A rule from probability theory that specifies how to update the probability of a hypothesis when new evidence arrives.

Step 1

In one or two sentences, what do you think this concept means? Wrong is fine; the small struggle is what makes the answer stick.