Famous Scientific Laws

The rules of reality, in plain words

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Novice

Concept 09 of 21

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Bayes theorem

Start with what you already believed, then nudge it by the new evidence.

Definition

A rule for updating your belief in a hypothesis when new evidence arrives, by combining prior probability with how well the hypothesis predicts that evidence.

Step 1

Predict first

In one or two sentences, what do you think this concept means? Wrong is fine; the small struggle is what makes the answer stick.