Bayes Theorem

New evidence should update your beliefs in proportion to how much it tells you. Bayes theorem is the formula for doing that correctly.

Definition

A mathematical rule for updating the probability of a hypothesis given new evidence, combining a prior belief with the likelihood of the observed data.

Step 1

Predict first

In one or two sentences, what do you think this concept means? Wrong is fine; the small struggle is what makes the answer stick.